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Obama illustration by Charles Tsevis
I can hardly believe it’s come to this. One more day until CHANGE! We’ll finally put America back on the right track and be in a position to realize the dreams of all Americans!
With less than 12 hours left before polls open on the East Cast, Real Clear Politics has Sen. Obama leading Sen. McCain by an average of 7.4 pts (51.6% to 41.3%). Even I have to admit that in my wildest dreams, I couldn’t have anticipated that the polls wouldn’t have tightened as we got closer to election day.
At the battleground state level, Obama is either tied or ahead in 7 of the contests; up in FL (1.8%), VA (4.3%), OH (3.2%), CO (5.5%) and NV (6.2%); and within one point in NC (0.6%) and MO (0.5%).
He’s also up by 7.6% in PA, where McCain made one last and very expensive and time-consuming push to try to flip one of Obama’s states.
At this point, it will take some sort of national event for McCain to generate enough momentum to come back and win all of the states he needs to win in order to get to 270.
PLEASE, get out and VOTE tomorrow morning!
.chris{}
Sen. John McCain
On Friday night, pollster John Zogby did a strange thing that provided a glimmer of hope to McCain supporters in the bogosphere. He published findings of a one-day survey that showed McCain leading Obama. He then speculated:
“Is McCain making a move? The three-day average holds steady, but McCain outpolled Obama today, 48% to 47%. He is beginning to cut into Obama’s lead among independents, is now leading among blue collar voters, has strengthened his lead among investors and among men, and is walloping Obama among NASCAR voters. Joe the Plumber may get his license after all.”
Now of course, there are problems with this approach to polling, which is why this practice is nowhere near widespread, however after the complete weekend sample came in, it obviously appears that the questionable one-day sample was a blip. The headline on Zogby’s site today: “Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Poll: One Day Is Not A Trend: Obama Holds His Lead“. Zogby goes on to report:
“Obama has consolidated his lead over McCain. His single day lead today was back to 52%-42%. He leads by 10 among independents and has solidified his base. He leads among Hispanics by38 points, African Americans by 88, 18-24 year olds by 36, 18-29 year olds by 25, 25-34 year olds by 16, women by 8, and men by 3. He has a 17 point lead among those who have already voted, 22 by those who have registered to vote in the past 6 months, Moderates by 34, Catholics by 10. He even receives 21% support among Conservatives.”
Now for the good part. As if you could see Zogby wringing his hands, he writes:
“There are two full days to go before Election Day and obviously anything can happen, but it is hard to see where McCain goes from here.”
On his own site he also tells his “blogger friends” to chill!
“A special note to blogger friends: calm it down. Lay off the cable television noise and look at your baseball cards in your spare time. It is better for your (and everyone else’s) health.”
2 more days until change….
.chris{}
Sen. John McCain is lagging in the polls, late
It seems that after all the spin out of Sen. McCain’s camp this week about being “a few points down” and “the polls tightening”, recent national and statewide polls released this morning — apparently after Sen. Obama’s 30 minute infomercial reached 34 million American viewers — show that Obama has widened his lead over McCain.
Gallup, which releases three daily polls — one for Registered Voters, one Likely Voters (expanded) and one for Likely Voters (traditional) — shows double-digit leads across each polling time (11 pts, 10 pts and 10 pts respectively).
This is the first time that the expanded Likely Voters poll (which accounts for increased turnout) and the traditional Likely Voters poll (which assumes similar turnout patters to 2004) both show a similar lead for Obama. According to Gallup:
This is the first time since Gallup began estimating likely voters in early October that there is no difference between Gallup’s two likely voter models. Obama’s lead of 52% to 42% using Gallup’s traditional estimate of likely voting criteria takes into account past voting as well as current intentions. Obama’s identical lead using the expanded model takes into account only current voting intentions.
It’s funny because just Wednesday, conservative talk show host Bill O’Reilly was hanging his hat on the Gallup poll’s traditional poll — probably for the first time ever — citing that likely voters are the most credible because these are folks who actually have come out to the polls to vote in the past. I imagine he’ll be discrediting Gallup now and citing another poll which perhaps is more encouraging for McCain. LOL!
In addition to Gallup, CNN’s Poll of polls also shows Sen. Obama widening his lead, with a 7 pt. lead vs. only a 5 pt. lead as recently as Thursday. I’m sure McCain supporters had hoped McCain’s poll numbers would creep closer to Obama’s throughout the weekend, perhaps heading into Monday at or near the margin of error (heck, maybe even McCain would be LEADING Obama?).
Doesn’t look likely. McCain’s numbers are headed in the other direction, momentum that bears itself out in individual states where Obama continues to lead.
At this rate, Obama figures to start Monday with a high single digit lead on McCain nationally and a small to mid-single digit lead in several battleground / former Bush 2004 states.
LL Cool J
LL Cool J once said, famously, in his hit Mama Said Knock You Out “don’t call it a comeback”. I don’t call what’s happening in the polls a comeback for McCain, nor do I call it tightening. And with approximately 3 days before the first polls close on the east coast, I don’t think it looks good for the McCain camp right now. It does, however, really look good for the millions of Americans who are starving for change!
3 days ’til change…..
.chris{}
Joe The Plumber argument not working
A CNN poll of polls shows that McCain is not making up ground in the battleground state of Ohio:
According to CNN’s latest poll of polls of the state, the Arizona senator now trails Obama by 6 points there, 50 percent to 44 percent. That gap is two points wider than it was Monday and double what it was one week ago.
Making matters worse, McCain is also apparently not closing the gap in Florida either:
Meanwhile, a new poll of polls in Florida shows a similar story. The Arizona senator trails Obama by 4 points there, 49 percent to 45 percent. That gap is 3 points higher than it was earlier today and is largely due to a newly released survey from LA Times/Bloomberg showing McCain down 7 points in the state. The Florida poll of polls also includes surveys from Suffolk University and Reuters/Zogby.
So much for the polls “tightening” or McCain being “down a few points” like he’s been asserting.
One more week until change….
.chris{}
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