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Party Identification Among 18-29-Year Olds
After sifting through all the exit polls and data from last week’s Democratic route of the GOP, someone somewhere was bound to find a silver lining that points to some optimistic microtrend that the GOP could take solace in and build on as they look toward the 2010 mid-terms and the 2012 presidential election. This entry does not contain any such silver linings.
Obama won young voters 2-to-1 vs. McCain, as opposed to 2004 and 2000 when the vote was very close to even. If that’s not absolutely frightening to the Republican brass, they need to have their heads examined.
Forget losing an election, the GOP could lose an entire generation of voters to the Democratic party, as its base grows older and smaller in numbers.
The challenge for the GOP now must become, how do they craft ideas and solutions that are relevant to a young, tech-savvy generation? On the surface, it would seem that the tactics and strategies the GOP uses most effectively are outdated and completely ineffective to younger audiences.
The GOP is all about robocalls while many under 30 don’t even have home phones.
The GOP uses conservative talk radio very effectively to spread its message while many under 30 don’t listen to the radio at all, preferring to listen to their iPods instead.
In Obama, young people had a candidate who connected with them via text messages, Twitter and podcasts while allowing them to self-organize through social networks. In McCain, young voters had a candidate who admittedly didn’t even know how to email.
So I’m sure there are some in the GOP who will come up with the very simple solution of running a younger candidate next time. Maybe that will succeed in lowering the age of the candidate but the problem is that it likely won’t succeed in lowering the age of their ideas.
.chris{}
The War Against Science
After the euphoria of the triumph over the McCain/Palin ticket has worn off and reality sets in, Obama’s victory is almost like the gift that just keeps on giving!
One of the first great things about Obama’s convincing win on Tuesday — no President McCain and (thankfully) no Vice President Palin.
But what sinks in after the fact is that the best aspects of an impending Obama presidency is the undoing of the myriad of misguided and failed policies of current President George Bush. None of these failed policies is as pronounced or as ready to be undone as the unofficial war on science!!!
It’s no secret that the Bush Administration has waged a war against government scientists where science conflicts with the stated theological ideology of the president as well as the extreme religious right. This has led to severe restrictions of funding for stem cell research, the denial of global warming and numerous conflicts with government agencies like NASA.
No more.
It seems like the last three weeks leading up to election day dragged on and couldn’t go by fast enough. I’ll tell you, I think the next three will drag by even more slowly! January 20, 2009 — the end of our 8 year, “long national nightmare” as blogger SusanG of the Daily Kos called it — can’t come fast enough!!!
.chris{}
Sen. Joe Lieberman
OK, I’m not usually a vindictive person and I don’t normally hold a grudge. But it’s time for some post-election payback and there is no better place to start than with Sen. Joe Liberman (I, CT)!
It wasn’t enough for him to stand against the Dems and emphatically back President Bush on Iraq.
It wasn’t enough for him to endorse Sen. McCain for president and stump with him all over the country.
But when he appeared and spoke in favor of McCain and trashed Obama in prime time during the GOP convention, he had to know that if McCain didn’t get elected, there would be serious consequences to his actions.
Today starts the first day of those consequences, as the AP reports that after a 45 minute meeting with Senate Majority Leader Senator Harry Reid (D, NV), Reid is leaning toward stripping Lieberman of his chairmanship of the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee.
I’d feel sorry for him but (a) he really deserves it and (b) he had to know it’s coming.
Payback is a biyatch!
.chris{}
I Didn’t Vote For Obama Today by Boyd Reed.
Please go to TPM and read it, it’s a wonderful piece.
.chris{}
I hope I never hear about that myth again!!! Obama is cleaning up!!!
.chris{}
The first of the hotly contested states goes to Obama and, frankly, a state that McCain HAD to have.
Yes we CAN!
Change is upon us!!!
.chris{}
GOP pollster Frank Luntz, in an interview with the BBC, says it plainly: “I cannot foresee a scenario that John McCain is elected president of the United States,”
Sen. John McCain
On Friday night, pollster John Zogby did a strange thing that provided a glimmer of hope to McCain supporters in the bogosphere. He published findings of a one-day survey that showed McCain leading Obama. He then speculated:
“Is McCain making a move? The three-day average holds steady, but McCain outpolled Obama today, 48% to 47%. He is beginning to cut into Obama’s lead among independents, is now leading among blue collar voters, has strengthened his lead among investors and among men, and is walloping Obama among NASCAR voters. Joe the Plumber may get his license after all.”
Now of course, there are problems with this approach to polling, which is why this practice is nowhere near widespread, however after the complete weekend sample came in, it obviously appears that the questionable one-day sample was a blip. The headline on Zogby’s site today: “Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Poll: One Day Is Not A Trend: Obama Holds His Lead“. Zogby goes on to report:
“Obama has consolidated his lead over McCain. His single day lead today was back to 52%-42%. He leads by 10 among independents and has solidified his base. He leads among Hispanics by38 points, African Americans by 88, 18-24 year olds by 36, 18-29 year olds by 25, 25-34 year olds by 16, women by 8, and men by 3. He has a 17 point lead among those who have already voted, 22 by those who have registered to vote in the past 6 months, Moderates by 34, Catholics by 10. He even receives 21% support among Conservatives.”
Now for the good part. As if you could see Zogby wringing his hands, he writes:
“There are two full days to go before Election Day and obviously anything can happen, but it is hard to see where McCain goes from here.”
On his own site he also tells his “blogger friends” to chill!
“A special note to blogger friends: calm it down. Lay off the cable television noise and look at your baseball cards in your spare time. It is better for your (and everyone else’s) health.”
2 more days until change….
.chris{}
Sen. John McCain is lagging in the polls, late
It seems that after all the spin out of Sen. McCain’s camp this week about being “a few points down” and “the polls tightening”, recent national and statewide polls released this morning — apparently after Sen. Obama’s 30 minute infomercial reached 34 million American viewers — show that Obama has widened his lead over McCain.
Gallup, which releases three daily polls — one for Registered Voters, one Likely Voters (expanded) and one for Likely Voters (traditional) — shows double-digit leads across each polling time (11 pts, 10 pts and 10 pts respectively).
This is the first time that the expanded Likely Voters poll (which accounts for increased turnout) and the traditional Likely Voters poll (which assumes similar turnout patters to 2004) both show a similar lead for Obama. According to Gallup:
This is the first time since Gallup began estimating likely voters in early October that there is no difference between Gallup’s two likely voter models. Obama’s lead of 52% to 42% using Gallup’s traditional estimate of likely voting criteria takes into account past voting as well as current intentions. Obama’s identical lead using the expanded model takes into account only current voting intentions.
It’s funny because just Wednesday, conservative talk show host Bill O’Reilly was hanging his hat on the Gallup poll’s traditional poll — probably for the first time ever — citing that likely voters are the most credible because these are folks who actually have come out to the polls to vote in the past. I imagine he’ll be discrediting Gallup now and citing another poll which perhaps is more encouraging for McCain. LOL!
In addition to Gallup, CNN’s Poll of polls also shows Sen. Obama widening his lead, with a 7 pt. lead vs. only a 5 pt. lead as recently as Thursday. I’m sure McCain supporters had hoped McCain’s poll numbers would creep closer to Obama’s throughout the weekend, perhaps heading into Monday at or near the margin of error (heck, maybe even McCain would be LEADING Obama?).
Doesn’t look likely. McCain’s numbers are headed in the other direction, momentum that bears itself out in individual states where Obama continues to lead.
At this rate, Obama figures to start Monday with a high single digit lead on McCain nationally and a small to mid-single digit lead in several battleground / former Bush 2004 states.
LL Cool J
LL Cool J once said, famously, in his hit Mama Said Knock You Out “don’t call it a comeback”. I don’t call what’s happening in the polls a comeback for McCain, nor do I call it tightening. And with approximately 3 days before the first polls close on the east coast, I don’t think it looks good for the McCain camp right now. It does, however, really look good for the millions of Americans who are starving for change!
3 days ’til change…..
.chris{}
Joe The Plumber argument not working
A CNN poll of polls shows that McCain is not making up ground in the battleground state of Ohio:
According to CNN’s latest poll of polls of the state, the Arizona senator now trails Obama by 6 points there, 50 percent to 44 percent. That gap is two points wider than it was Monday and double what it was one week ago.
Making matters worse, McCain is also apparently not closing the gap in Florida either:
Meanwhile, a new poll of polls in Florida shows a similar story. The Arizona senator trails Obama by 4 points there, 49 percent to 45 percent. That gap is 3 points higher than it was earlier today and is largely due to a newly released survey from LA Times/Bloomberg showing McCain down 7 points in the state. The Florida poll of polls also includes surveys from Suffolk University and Reuters/Zogby.
So much for the polls “tightening” or McCain being “down a few points” like he’s been asserting.
One more week until change….
.chris{}
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